Despite their limits, the fresh Important Statistics offers the most readily useful available investigation in which so you’re able to imagine the brand new federal breakup speed during the 1990. S. Census Agency team reveals that marital incidents research on ACS and you will U.S. Important Statistics (including the DRA shot) was comparable ( Elliott et al., 2010). Rates for more the past few years commonly you can because the government authorities left behind the fresh collection of crucial statistics towards the marriages and divorces within condition height inside 1996.

In order that all of our answers are powerful, we performed a supplemental analysis because of the restricting this new 2010 ACS data to simply the latest DRA test claims in which years from the duration of split up try said in 1990. The results out of this supplemental study are almost just like people according to the entire nation, suggesting that the upsurge in new divorce rates isn’t an enthusiastic artifact regarding as well as ACS studies out of all states.

Analytic Approach

Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p < .01>

Roentgen esults

Given that shown during the Shape step one, the brand new divorce case rates features twofold due to the fact 1990, ascending regarding 4.nine so you can ten.step one divorced persons for every 1,000 married people. Which pattern belies the overall development in the You.S. divorce speed during this time, that has been basically apartment from the 19.0 for the 1990 and you may 17.nine this year (impact maybe not shown). The fresh new increasing of your rates out of splitting up among center-aged and you can the elderly results in a hefty upsurge in the fresh new amount of people old 50 and you will more mature who sense divorce proceedings. In the 1990, everything 206,007 individuals old 50 and old got separated, whereas this year in the 643,152 got separated. So you’re able to contextualize which trend, think you to less than 1 in ten persons exactly who divorced in the 1990 try aged fifty and you can older compared to more step one in the 4 now (impact maybe not shown). Also, and when this new divorce proceedings rate remains ongoing across the next 20 years-a conservative presumption according to the recent pattern-exactly how many people old fifty and you may old who would experience splitting up inside the 2030 do rise because of the 1 / 3 to help you over 828,380 do french women love white men (authors’ calculation based on age-particular estimated populace sizes from inside the 2030 [ You.S. Census Bureau, 2004]), reflecting the new speeding up development in the fresh new more mature population that can exist along the next 2 decades.